He says Pakistan may eventually see merit “not in normalising but stabilising the India front”.
Kugelman argues that, for now, “the best possible outcome is that things don’t get any worse”.
Ultimately, the future may depend less on geopolitics than on the calculations of two powerful leaders: Narendra Modi and Asim Munir.
“Field Marshal Munir and Prime Minister Modi have incredible sway in their respective capitals,” Clary says. “They have it within their power to renew diplomacy if either man desired it.”
For now, neither appears ready.
